We Need Much Bigger Pockets

This week I’m reading Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close by Jonathan Safran Foer, a book that a good friend recommended to me recently. It’s the story of a remarkably adroit 9-year-old boy named Oskar and his adventures around the five boroughs of New York City as he deals with a final challenge from his father who died in the September 11th tragedy. Throughout the book we see through the eyes of a headstrong yet anguished child trying to make sense of the world and how to live in it without his dad. Although I’m only about a third of the way through the novel, I came across a paragraph yesterday that truly tugged at my heartstrings and I wanted to share.

While having a conversation via walkie talkie with his grandmother who lives across the street, Oskar asks why matches are so short and that he thinks they should be longer because people are always running around with them before they burn out, or worse yet, burning their fingers. Oskar’s grandmother states that she believes they are made short in order for people to fit them into their pockets. Oskar’s response was a solution in search of problem: that we should have much larger pockets in order to have longer matches so that people would not hurt themselves. Later on that evening, while Oskar is lying awake in bed, he thought to himself:

We need much bigger pockets…we need enormous pockets, pockets big enough for our families, and our friends, and even the people who aren’t on our lists, people we’ve never met but still want to protect. We need pockets for boroughs and for cities, a pocket that could hold the universe. But I knew that there couldn’t be pockets that enormous. In the end, everyone loses everyone.

Although I can’t say with any certainty as I have not yet read the book in its entirety, but I think this must be the point in which Oskar realizes that the pain of life is unavoidable, and that life is moving on in the city, as it always does, big pockets or not.

More on this later.

Bryan

The Psychology of Place in an Emerging Energy Crisis

By wmliu on Flickr

Cognitive Dissonance

n. Psychology. A condition of conflict or anxiety resulting from inconsistency between one’s beliefs and one’s actions

(freedictionary.com)

On the surface, the definition of ‘cognitive dissonance’ sounds very similar to ‘hypocrisy’. But the difference between the two lies in a matter of consciousness. The hypocrite’s actions, for example, are divorced from self because the hypocrite does not know that his words and thoughts are out of sync with his actions. Often the hypocrite is blissfully ignorant.

Those that experience cognitive dissonance, on the other hand, know about their own hypocrisy and are in a general state of anxiety about it. Actions are out of sync with thoughts, and the self is in conflict with self because of awareness.

Bizarre as it may seem, it was these distinctions in consciousness, or states of being, that got me thinking about the potential effects of an emerging energy crisis on average Americans. As an urban planner, I’m naturally very interested in the built and natural environments, but since it is such an interdisciplinary field I often find myself thinking about the root causes and motivations behind people’s actions, interactions and decisions made with regard to their environments.

Before reading any further, I have a couple of disclaimers:

  1. I must first preface this post by stating that I am an urban planner by education and not a psychologist. Therefore, I do not claim to be an expert but instead merely an appreciator of psychology.
  2. I am not going to debate the topic of resource depletion. There are plenty of resources available for you to come to your own conclusions. This blog assumes this crisis is upon us.

I recently finished reading The Long Emergency by James Howard Kunstler, a book about the impending energy crisis. He gives a perfect example of the oblivious hypocrisy of an educated, liberal family in his neighborhood:

One family in my neighborhood had a sign in their yard that said “War Is Not the Answer”—and had two SUVs parked in the driveway. The American public, including the educated minority, seemed eerily clueless about the connection between their own living arrangements and our problems overseas.

Similarly, I can find no better phrase than “eerily clueless” to describe our collective understanding of just how frail our way of life is when considering how expeditiously we’re exhausting our planet’s energy resources.

But who is too blame for this unconsciousness? It seems too easy a target once again to blame the media and politicians for downplaying or completely omitting the gravity of our predicament. Hell, even Forbes posted this week on the possibility that peak oil has come. But it’s quite surprising given the 24-hour shit show that is the cable and internet news networks’ sensationalism and propensity for hyperbolic drama that they haven’t picked this topic up with more veracity. Then again, maybe it isn’t surprising. Has the president come out and told us that we’re running out of oil? What would be the economic consequences of such an action? What would be the affect on crowd psychology?

Take for example the photo of the Chevy Suburban covered in environmentally conscious bumper stickers at the top of this post. I love bumper stickers for this very reason. Most of the time they unintentionally say far more about our collective cluelessness than working to promote any particular person’s cause (or hypocrisy). Another favorite of mine is the “buy local” stickers affixed to foreign cars, however, in today’s borderless world economy one could argue that their foreign car was made in the U.S. But I digress.

James Howard Kunstler talks briefly in his book about the “yuppie progressive” Rocky Mountain Institute, an organization interested in researching and promoting sustainable practices who in the 1990s was researching the potential of a “hypercar” that would run on alternative energy sources (pg. 33). It seems as though the automobile is so much a part of American culture that even those who are conscious of our energy situation have predicated a successful American future on the reliability of maintaining our auto-centric lifestyles. But is the desire for personal auto-mobility a choice, or is it one forced upon us? A sort of collective brainwashing of what we should expect, of how we should live?

Certainly Americans have a love affair with the automobile. Stories of the automobile saturate our music, film and art. The automobile practically invokes the philosophical spirit of the United States constitution. We’ve heard it all before. Cars are freedom.

But freedom from what? Is it a freedom to go places, or a freedom to escape places? Freedom from drab, monotonous suburbia? Freedom from a decrepit ghetto?

Have you ever traveled someplace you love? Think right now about an urban place that you absolutely love and makes you feel alive. Ever notice that the places you love to be rarely require a vehicle?

Disneyworld by joeshlabotnik on Flickr

I like to give the Disneyworld example. Every spring and summer break, people from all around the world travel to Orlando, Florida by the carload, spending hundreds, if not thousands, on gasoline or plane tickets. But what happens once you get to Disneyland?

You park your vehicle in the largest surface parking lot you’ve ever seen in your life, you walk half a mile to a monorail which takes you into an automobile-less world where everybody walks around the faux Disneyworld downtown, complete with shops, eateries, you name it. It’s completely fabricated, but people eat it up. Even if it’s inauthentic, people naturally are attracted to it. How is it that so many people who love their automobiles also love these quaint environments that the automobile killed?

But what can we say of those who are consciously aware of our predicament? What about those who talk the talk about living a more sustainable lifestyle, but when it comes down to it they just don’t walk the walk?

I certainly feel guilty about this. There are many actions I could take that would be much more sustainable, but for one reason or another (usually convenience) I opt for an easier alternative. I advocate for tightly knit, walkable-bikeable neighborhoods, and good, decent public transit. Yet I do not ride my bicycle as much as I should. I still use my vehicle way more than necessary.

The reality is that many of us educated, earth-conscious people have never really known what true hardship is. I grew up in a poor family with a single mother who struggled, but in comparison to much of the world, I lived in the lap of luxury. We rarely worried about food, I had a decent dwelling all of my life, and I always had clothes. I had a wonderful education. But I have never been forced to grow my own food or trade labor for clothing or make too many sacrifices to simply provide me with a suitable standard of living. All of this ease of living was based upon the ease of access to cheap fossil fuels. And we’ve built our way of life around this ease of access, many of us whom have never given it a second thought.

I bring this up, not to make anyone feel guilty for our privileges or the actions that we take that may be unsustainable. I bring it up to highlight that we have all become accustomed to the availability of these privileges and ease of unsustainable action, for convenience or otherwise. We are creatures of habit. We know that our actions or choices may be unsustainable, we make these decisions anyway, and this may cause an undercurrent of guilt in our lives.

A Street Car (Media, PA by Sandy Sorlien)

I experience this guilt on a weekly basis. I have made some lifestyle decisions that have greatly reduced my carbon footprint, such as living within 1.5 miles of my work. I can hop a bus or ride my bike if necessary. But when Monday morning comes too quickly and I hit the snooze button one too many times, it’s too easy for me to hop in my car instead of riding my bike. I have ready access  to a farmers’ market where I can purchase locally grown food much of the year, but I know I can fulfill much of my produce needs at the local supermarket for probably half the price.

I feel guilty about these decisions when I knowingly make unsustainable choices. But I also know that I’m better suited to handle an energy crisis simply because of where I have chosen to live and work. I never know the price of fuel at any given moment because it’s just not a large enough factor in my budget. But if fuel prices skyrocket tomorrow, what other ways will that affect my life? The availability and affordability of food may become a very real concern of mine, for starters. In what ways would an energy crisis affect your life if it happened tomorrow? Do you believe it could happen (blissfully ignorant)? If so, are you struggling to do anything about it?

I believe we are heading toward an extreme collective cognitive dissonance over our actions versus our beliefs if we continue to create a habitat that does not provide us with enough opportunity to make sustainable living an easy decision. And if we do find ourselves in the midst of a huge energy crisis, what will that do to us psychologically knowing that we didn’t do anything about it, or felt as though we had no control over the direction of our lives? Worse yet, what if we lived out our lives on the promise of alternative energy sources fueling our far-flung suburban and exurban lifestyles only to find ourselves collectively up shit creek without a paddle?

Philadelphia (Sandy Sorlien, Placeology.ws)

I think it’s worth mentioning that if the U.S. doesn’t collapse in on itself in the early years of an energy crisis that there’s huge potential for positive outcomes to forced sustainability. Kunstler touches on some of these potential outcomes in his chapter titled “Living in the Long Emergency” What stands out to me are the possibilities for tighter knit communities, enhanced and diversified local economies, and a thriving and lively built environment. What’s holding us back from developing and enhancing those types of environments? Do most people not prefer them already? Studies have shown that they do.

I will anecdotally state that denser, walkable communities put people and neighbors in contact with each other more often than suburban communities, strengthening the community fabric.The simple act of walking to the corner store to buy a gallon of milk provides infinite possibilities for social interaction that might not generally occur going from garage to grocery supercenter to garage again.  It builds a sense of a shared public realm and perhaps the motivation to strengthen what is mutually vested. Hell, those three dollars you spent on a gallon of milk may actually have a chance at recirculating through the local economy. The added foot traffic in a diverse, mixed-use, walkable neighborhood may keep crime to a minimum, make the neighborhood feel alive with energy, and add to its sense of place.

Working for a state housing authority, I’ve seen my fair share of programs that try to put Band Aids on our hollowed out central cities. We and others have poured billions into rehabilitating central city housing. Although I wasn’t alive while the housing projects of the 60s and 70s were being built and tore apart neighborhoods and helped to concentrate poverty. But I can tell there’s been a psychological shift and so has shifted the dialog and philosophies around around affordable housing. The younger groups coming into the community development world are much more likely to get behind sustainability, the green economy, and creating vibrant communities. And my colleagues have evolved their thinking as well to include affordable housing as just one aspect of diverse, mixed use, mixed tenure, and mixed income environments. Yet for as much money as we put into central cities, they still fail to thrive. There are glimmers of hope here in the post-industrial Midwest, but people still enjoy their suburban enclaves. Even the poor aspire toward them.

The difference I’m seeing today is that the younger crowds that I know, even those with children, are choosing to live in downtowns and closer to work. They’re choosing iPhones instead of wasting money on cars, gasoline and insurance. They’re choosing more personal time over hour-long commutes.

Will this class of people, these new urban dwellers, become tomorrow’s well positioned elite? Will the poor be pushed out to the disconnected suburbs? Are the suburbs the slums of tomorrow, even worse off than their urban counterparts of the past (right now)?

The boomers that are retiring? Half of them are still moving to Arizona and Florida, hell bent on pursuing that collective dream of individualism, and a house on a hill–no less than one half acre apart from the next, identical house. But the other half, free from their children at last, are moving out of the suburbs and into downtowns.

Where are we headed? As we enter the energy crisis in the 21st Century, we are in for a huge clash. As our unsustainable choices become harder to make, it will force people into our urban cores and along transit corridors, and those who are already well positioned to make less drastic changes to their lifestyles will thrive. There will be undeniable hardship, with some positive changes to our built environment. Cognitive dissonance in this class will give way to real concern and change. Those that are ignorant or deny the possibility of an energy crisis’ ability to threaten their current way of life may be split into two categories: those who have the means to make lifestyle changes after the fact, and those who don’t.

As a housing and community development professional, I have no doubt that in a few decades, in the late years of my career, the vast majority of my attention and all of my  energy will focus on those disadvantaged individuals who were unable to adapt to a  changing flow of resources as well as those who denied that an energy crisis would ever come, and who found themselves unprepared. My job will likely be retrofitting suburbia for density and transit as well as making sure our urban cores have enough affordable housing as prices drive sky high with demand.

In order to avert catastrophe, how do we prepare our citizens to drastically change how they perceive and relate to place?

-Bryan Robb

Michigan/Grand River Avenue Transportation Study

For anyone in Lansing following area news recently, you may have read a few months back about the Michigan/Grand River Avenue Transportation Study (MIGRTRANS), whose aim it was to improve transit in the corridor and ease congestion. The MIGRTRANS was commissioned by the Capital Area Transportation Authority (CATA) and completed by engineering giant URS in order to study the best possible transit alternatives for the corridor, including Bus Rapid Transit (BRT), Light Rail Train (LRT), and Modern Streetcar. According to the CATA and URS findings, Bus Rapid Transit is the most viable option.

From the Lansing State Journal November 10, 2010:

Lansing-area corridor proposal envisions “bus rapid transit” system

After more than a year of discussion, local transportation experts have come up with a $194 million solution to ease congestion along the eight-mile Michigan-Grand River Avenue corridor.

Capital Area Transportation Authority officials unveiled study results Tuesday that they hope will grab the attention of the Federal Transit Administration.

Less expensive than both modern street car and light rail systems, CATA suggests a modified “bus rapid transit” option that would speed travel along the corridor that runs through Lansing, Lansing Township, East Lansing and Meridian Township.

With new, more attractive buses stopping along a median, with doors opening on both sides, weekday ridership is projected to increase to 7,600 to 8,700. Current weekday ridership is 6,600.

CATA might seek federal dollars for public transportation improvements that will spark economic development along the corridor that has easy access to local highways, downtown Lansing and Michigan State University.

Their findings do not surprise me. In a town that is known more for promoting the blue collar status quo and less for its forward thinking, creativity or support for actual livable communities, public officials have dropped the ball yet again. But I’m honestly starting to think that it’s on purpose.

If you take a look at their Web page for the study (http://www.migrtrans.org/resourcepage.html), there’s a very basic cost analysis of the various transportation alternatives studied for the corridor (Bus Rapid Transit, Light Rail, and Modern Streetcar). Included in their study are observations regarding the likelihood of receiving federal match funding based on their cost/benefit analyses of the various options.

The costs of building any of the systems are great. But it strikes me as rather odd that the cost of the modern streetcar option (which would promote the highest ridership, even by their study) is on average 40% more expensive per mile than what many other, larger cities have built very recently. Consider the following proposals or plans for modern street car as of late:

Cincinnati StreetcarFunded- 2012

  • 3.9-mile new north-south route runs through the city’s Downtown, from waterfront to north downtown
  • 6,400 projected daily riders
  • $128 million cost; $25 million provided by U.S. DOT Urban Circulator Grant

Fort Lauderdale Fort Lauderdale Downtown “Wave” Streetcar- 2013

  • 2.7-mile downtown and inner-city circulator, roughly paralleling the Florida East Coast Railway route
  • 10 stations from Broward General Medical Center to North 8th Street
  • $124.34 million construction costs

Miami Miami Streetcar – 2012

  • 10.6-mile system of lines in and around Downtown Miami
  • Three general alignments:
    • North-South, from Government Center to the Miami Design District
    • West-South, from Government Center to Civic Center/Heath District
    • North-West, from Miami Design District to Civic Center/Health District
  • $200 million cost
  • 7,400 to 17,400 projected daily riders

Providence

  • Downtown Streetcar
    • 2.3-mile line, with two routes, running along streets
    • 9 stations
    • $76 million estimated construction cost

Reno

  • Downtown Streetcar
    • 1.5-mile line along Virginia Street between Lawlor Events Center and California Avenue
    • $67 million cost for initial phase
    • Second phase of streetcar system, at $84 million, would span 3.5 miles of Virginia Street from California Avenue to the Convention Center

Stamford

  • Streetcar System
    • 5-mile one-way or two-way lines on Atlantic and Bedford Streets, and potentially Washington Boulevard
    • $129 million construction cost

Tucson

  • Downtown Modern StreetcarPartially Funded- 2012
    • 3.9-mile new line runs between Downtown Tucson and the University of Arizona, via the 4th Avenue Business District
    • Predicted 3,600 daily riders
    • Construction set to begin in 2011
    • Total costs of $150 million; Received $63 million in TIGER grants for the project

(Source: The Transport Politic)

URS estimates that a Lansing modern streetcar system would cost $505 million for a 7-mile system (just over $72 million per mile).

For argument’s sake, let’s say that their price estimates for all three options are reasonable. Should we build modern street car at this price? Even as the most expensive option, I still believe it be the most viable option for Michigan/Grand River considering their Modified BRT plan may not even increase ridership. Sure, it would be expensive, but if we consider cost alternatives as well as opportunity costs, the choice becomes much easier.

For perspective, it currently costs about $40 million per mile to build a highway through an urban area, not including maintenance. Maintenance includes repairs, but it also includes the hoards of public employees needed to plow snow, clean up road kill, mow the grass, etc. Most highways also do not collect fees to offset such costs. Interstate 496, for instance, is used primarily for non-residents of the city of Lansing to get to their suburban enclaves. State employees use the highway in drovers, yet most do not live in the central city. Many of these residents do not pay city or county taxes, either (considering many commuters live in Eaton, Clinton, and Livingston Counties–and even farther way. I have many co-workers who live in SE Michigan). Yet we facilitate their movement to and from Lansing much better than our own residents’ mobility and accessibility.

Furthermore, we often fail to calculate the external costs of operating highway systems, such as noise and air pollution, disconnected neighborhoods, and the promotion of further sprawl at the expense of vibrant cities and lush farmland. Yet we continue to fund highway infrastructure at an alarming rate while never batting an eye.

Perhaps what bothers me the most about the MIGRTRANS study is that it also leaves out the opportunity costs of not developing the corridor with rail. It has been shown time and time again that rail spurs economic development along urban corridors. Washington, D.C. has seen billions in private investments along rail routes and developers are even chipping in their own money to get transit stops. It gives the private sector the confidence it needs to build higher density residential along urban corridors. And with more people and higher densities of buildings comes more tax revenue to help pay for the system. BRT just doesn’t bolster that kind of bullish confidence in the surrounding housing market. Finally, with increased housing density, ridership inevitably will rise. Can BRT promise this?

The choice of CATA to push its BRT agenda has nothing to do with a make believe cost-benefit analysis. Their decision is completely a political game. Their choice to go for BRT reflects the citizens’ recent distaste with tax increases while the economy is so terrible. This is evidenced by the recent May 3 vote to levy 4 mills to save the jobs of dozens of police and firefighters. Lansing residents voted against a millage increase despite the fact that most of their property values have dropped sharply and the millage increase would have barely increased their tax liabilities (perhaps a couple of dollars extra per month for the average resident).

With that level of distaste for government going around, particularly for a majority Democratic city, it would be extremely difficult to get approval for funding a $505 million streetcar system. But instead of thinking of creative alternatives, the political powers that be have chosen bus rapid transit as the preferred alternative because they believe it will be easier to get approval for funding. Their decision is short-sighted. Instead of planning longer term or with staged, incremental rail improvements while levying public and private resources over time, they’ve chosen the alternative that will have minimal corridor impact, high costs in the short run, and no political will to get it done. If and when this proposal meets the ballot, it will inevitably fail just like the millage in May. The time is now to reevaluate the modern streetcar option as a long-term strategy while considering alternative funding sources to bring a truly world class transit system to the Lansing region.